Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Policing the World

OK. Libya. So it looks like we're in a third war in the Middle East.

Looks like. Doesn't mean is.

There are a few important distinctions between Libya and Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan is easy to exclude from any analogies because it's never really been a state. Even under the Taliban substantial portions of it were under rebel control.

Iraq had a jerkbucket dictator. Libya has one too. Iraq had a big-ass army. Libya, not so much.

Now basically, Obama is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation in Libya. Sort of like Clinton in Bosnia. "Why aren't you doing anything?!" and then "OM God! Don't do that!!"

Right. So lets look at the military actions the US has taken since, say, 1980. These are just off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm missing a whole bunch of them.

Grenada -- sloppy operation, killed lots of civilians. Supposedly to free students. Result: Grenada actually a working democracy. Bonus points: is, and was, a Crown Colony. So we were attacking the British Queen. Minor whining from the British government ensued, made up for by attacking the Falklands.

Panama -- attacked country when we decided we didn't like the dictator we'd installed. Result: Panama basically the same, but with a working democracy.

Kuwait (1st Iraq War) -- Iraq attacks Kuwait (after asking, and getting, permission from the US). US decides to push Iraq out of Kuwait. Result: Kuwait still not a democracy.

Bosnia -- a major humanitarian mess and a genocide (or two). We tried bombing them but then brought the war criminal Slobodan Milošević to Dayton Ohio and bored him mercilessly until he capitulated. Result: concentration camps disbanded.

Haiti -- Ooh. This was an odd one. The CIA throws a left-leaning president out of the country and installs their cronys. Then the Congressional Black Caucus gets all behind Aristide and we set up to invade Haiti to re-install their leftist, democratically elected, president. Then it got weirder because rabbit-fighter Jimmy Carter flies to Haiti and persuades the general who was the "acting" president of Haiti to leave. Result: Haiti, traditionally a banana republic still a banana republic but with something of a democracy and fewer gross human rights violations.

Afghanistan -- remember "Clinton's Generals"? After 9/11 big coalition force with lots of money moved in and took Kabul. As with every other military force in the history of mankind, can't actually control much more of the country than the capital. Result: presumably girls are allowed to go to school again. Future of the entire joint still up for grabs.

Iraq War II -- US decides it really, really, really wants to invade Iraq. Doesn't even bother providing plausible reason. Hundreds of thousands die. Result: not terribly stable, and plenty o'people still die, fledgling democracy.

World War III -- yo, this almost happened. I'm talking about a hot war with Russia. Now, you could argue that the US sat this one out, but the State Department was practically goading Georgia to attack Russia (for emphasis that's Russia). Then the US decided to put a missile "defense shield" in Georgia which made the Russians go (almost literally) ballistic. This, remember, is why Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. Because he didn't start World War III. I know, it's a pretty low bar, but it's what we've got.

So, what are we looking at with Libya? Well, sometimes we're able to stop atrocities (albeit rather sloppily) like in Bosnia. Much of the time we just mess things up even more. Sometimes we do something absurd and are still able to walk away without hurting... well... ourselves.

And of course, Libya has been in our sights for a very long time. Heck, apparently the US Marines even have a song about them. But in and of itself there's no reason to presume we're getting ready for a long war with Libya. There's already an insurrection -- that's a huge difference between it and Iraq.

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